NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Patriots (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01bf9103ac543a9105215e24a5df6f46a2ea44506877bef03d5bbef5e47cd0aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patriotsof Patriots, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,982
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,982 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Patriots | 51c | 2,848$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.39 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Giants | 50c | 1,821$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.96 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Giants | 49c | 1,117$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.52 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Patriots | 45c | 615.16$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.34 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Patriots | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Giants | 55c | 450$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…814fbacked Giants | 49c | 364.47$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.59 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Giants | 53c | 271$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.63 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Giants | 49c | 245.47$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.28 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…d8b3backed Patriots | 46c | 209.04$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.88 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Giants | 53c | 207.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Giants | 49c | 205.39$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Patriots | 47c | 191$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.23 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Patriots | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.86 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Patriots | 50c | 119.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397d…794fbacked Giants | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47cb…dfdabacked Giants | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -6.5wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…9b3fbacked Giants | 57c | 54.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +6.9wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…63ccbacked Giants | 53c | 50.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…8260backed Patriots | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Giants | 50c | 38.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Giants | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5384…7408backed Patriots | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-4.5)this page
- Giants vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Giants vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Giants vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- Giants vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Over won
- Giants vs. Patriots: O/U 47.5Over won
- Giants vs. Patriots: O/U 59.5Under won
- Giants vs. Patriots: O/U 60.5Under won
- Mack Hollins: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-13.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-23.5)Giants won
- Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.