NFL · resolved market
Giants vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 23.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd57da09a9328af01b1dcaaa2580a7159b01eb0d4996a23a94c88a27f3a8d8d0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 50c | 4,444$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,222 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 50c | 4,429$2,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,214.5 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 51c | 2,241$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.97 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 47c | 231.6$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.75 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f9…7df1backed Under | 53c | 189.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb376…f6a0backed Over | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb3…05e5backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 51c | 97.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 51c | 84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Under | 53c | 75.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…bf01backed Over | 51c | 32.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Under | 46c | 26.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Over | 48c | 21.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Giants vs. Patriots: 1H O/U 23.5this page
- 1H Spread: Patriots (-4.5)Patriots won
- Giants vs. PatriotsPatriots won
- Giants vs. Patriots: 1H MoneylinePatriots won
- Giants vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5Over won
- Giants vs. Patriots: O/U 47.5Over won
- Giants vs. Patriots: O/U 59.5Under won
- Giants vs. Patriots: O/U 60.5Under won
- Mack Hollins: Receiving Yards O/U 34.5Under won
- Spread: Patriots (-13.5)Patriots won
- Spread: Patriots (-23.5)Giants won
- Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Patriots won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.