NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Bulls
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01c6eeeb3c80930da39db38753857d598bbbc7e29154ea6d3efdb88449c6f4f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bullsof Wizards, Bulls
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $144,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards | 10c | 25,797$2,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,477.05 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Wizards | 10c | 15,000$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Wizards | 0c | 5,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 335 | 0%0 W · 335 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Wizards | 2c | 4,880$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.37 | 878 | 3%26 W · 852 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -62%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Wizards | 15c | 4,796$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.7 | 283 | 41.7%118 W · 165 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b8…976cbacked Wizards | 10c | 4,080$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Wizards | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 406 | 27.8%113 W · 293 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Wizards | 1c | 2,176$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Wizards | 10c | 2,137$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.73 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Wizards | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 296 | 43.2%128 W · 168 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Wizards | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 706 | 40.8%288 W · 418 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6790…5e06backed Wizards | 9c | 1,363$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.7 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Wizards | 12c | 1,252$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Wizards | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe8…56a3backed Wizards | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 321 | 30.2%97 W · 224 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Wizards | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 84 | 34.5%29 W · 55 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca34…8cb1backed Wizards | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Wizards | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 236 | 46.6%110 W · 126 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed Wizards | 6c | 545$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 143 | 4.9%7 W · 136 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Wizards | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 364 | 23.4%85 W · 279 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x725f…06c2backed Wizards | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,888 | 37.3%704 W · 1,184 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Wizards | 11c | 333$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Wizards | 10c | 301.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Wizards | 9c | 208.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…3917backed Wizards | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…ae48backed Wizards | 10c | 143.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x408b…b51ebacked Wizards | 10c | 105.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +41%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca7…2469backed Wizards | 10c | 101.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Wizards | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 679 | 11%75 W · 604 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Wizards | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 734 | 45.5%334 W · 400 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b9…bcb1backed Wizards | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 370 | 11.4%42 W · 328 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433b…58debacked Wizards | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3209…f94dbacked Wizards | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Wizards | 12c | 96.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…8846backed Wizards | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb928…5fd7backed Bulls | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a5…877dbacked Bulls | 72c | 30.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x761b…e8f7backed Bulls | 74c | 27.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.