Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01db3c3d939e9a245f82b20ea4bddee903725d92f10d422787cd29e9976ea56e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa821…0bc8backed No | 80c | 1,310$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.75 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…989dbacked No | 75c | 1,064$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.33 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 27c | 700$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 212$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 17c | 204.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 182.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 172.3$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 76c | 170.26$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…1b55backed Yes | 16c | 163.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 269 | 33.1%89 W · 180 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 22c | 162.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 24c | 159.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 140.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 14c | 135.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 73c | 134.27$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 10c | 118.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 112$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 23c | 107.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 23c | 97.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 28c | 97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 23c | 94.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 23c | 86.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…2de0backed Yes | 23c | 86.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 21c | 81.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 16c | 80.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…ae07backed No | 79c | 75.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 34c | 68.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 18c | 67.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 23c | 65.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed Yes | 32c | 63.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 65c | 60.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 18c | 56.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 28c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 52.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 52.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…cdc4backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 47.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 22c | 46.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc1…caebbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0e…e6d1backed Yes | 29c | 38.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2632…6475backed Yes | 34c | 33.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c33…9ac6backed No | 77c | 32.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 29.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 27.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 27.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 78c | 22.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 72c | 21.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 76c | 20.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 20.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 17.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bb…236abacked No | 80c | 12.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.