Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7de69d9708b61b72a0c3eb2e5f89c9bac2369fe86f2ed56be7ac59a64122bc28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 40c | 1,017$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.16 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 4c | 809.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 660.21$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 3c | 541.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 63c | 516.2$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.28 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 20c | 513.09$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.39 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 62c | 360.31$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.62 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 12c | 313.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 37c | 172.7$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.76 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 69c | 153.87$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 67c | 149.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 134.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 45c | 134$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 49c | 114$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.37 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 108$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 107$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.84 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 106.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 90.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 59c | 89.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.09 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 38c | 87.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 85.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 33c | 79.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 51c | 75.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 67c | 72.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 31c | 70.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 69.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 21c | 62.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 30c | 61.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.1 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 67c | 57.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 41c | 55.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 56c | 53.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…cdc4backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…2155backed Yes | 45c | 44.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 67c | 42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48c…da03backed Yes | 72c | 41.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617c…a1b6backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 28c | 37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 36c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf517…a30cbacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 52c | 29.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 40c | 28.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 70c | 28.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…f700backed No | 56c | 26.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c4…2412backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 61c | 24.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 61c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 22.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 64c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 70c | 20.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 62c | 16.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 63c | 16.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 70c | 15.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed Yes | 75c | 14.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.