MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01f5faf276ae5530035c3eacdd4a1053ef25548f6934f9d8c80c21e10b338c21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Yankees | 77c | 10,023$7,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,732.46 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 25c | 9,077$2,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,796.1 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 7,173$1,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,512.3 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed New York Yankees | 78c | 6,267$4,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,890.26 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 1,041$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.77 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed New York Yankees | 69c | 891.57$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.24 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed New York Yankees | 78c | 636.13$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.18 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 22c | 598.18$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.53 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked New York Yankees | 78c | 552.78$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.4 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Toronto Blue Jays | 23c | 380.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.3 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked New York Yankees | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 26c | 219.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.97 | 532 | 38.5%205 W · 327 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 27c | 206.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.99 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 171$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.99 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked New York Yankees | 78c | 128.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 437 | 57%249 W · 188 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed New York Yankees | 78c | 128.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 115.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.37 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed New York Yankees | 74c | 78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Toronto Blue Jays | 24c | 75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed New York Yankees | 69c | 61.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 22c | 51.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.53 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed New York Yankees | 69c | 45.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed New York Yankees | 69c | 45.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Yankees | 74c | 38.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked New York Yankees | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed New York Yankees | 69c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 282 | 56.4%159 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed New York Yankees | 74c | 34.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed New York Yankees | 76c | 31.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked New York Yankees | 76c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…285fbacked New York Yankees | 78c | 28.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | -9.7wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked New York Yankees | 78c | 24.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed New York Yankees | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed New York Yankees | 78c | 19.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed New York Yankees | 70c | 15.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked New York Yankees | 77c | 14.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked New York Yankees | 78c | 12.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 396 | 53%210 W · 186 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.