MLB · resolved market

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a24fa38c7db4731a8e4b8b08e60864eb4496e15d9c1cbc2fb7575112ce79648

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $106,727
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $106,815

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,727 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Over	53c	78,888$41,811 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41,810.62	1,385	49.5%685 W · 700 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43ca…c219backed Under	47c	63,830$30,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33,829.88	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	41cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	53c	19,564$10,369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,368.98	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Under	47c	12,000$5,640 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,360	34	32.4%11 W · 23 L	-3.7wins	-0.11per pick	43cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Under	47c	4,707$2,212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,494.71	920	54%497 W · 423 L	+23.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Under	47c	4,500$2,115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,385	457	48.6%222 W · 235 L	-11.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Under	47c	3,000$1,410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,590	452	52.4%237 W · 215 L	-4.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Under	47c	2,564$1,205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,358.92	1,292	50.2%648 W · 644 L	+18.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	47c	2,154$1,011 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,142.11	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Under	47c	2,097$986 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,111.52	1,555	48.9%761 W · 794 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa90…c709backed Under	48c	2,030$975 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,055.84	62	56.5%35 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	47c	2,000$940 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,060	5,400	50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L	+17.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over	52c	1,844$959 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$958.77	4,279	47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L	-83.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over	52c	1,063$554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$554.24	11,356	52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L	+209.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under	47c	745$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$394.85	1,521	48.6%739 W · 782 L	-5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba4…6de0backed Under	47c	638.29$302 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$336.2	209	45%94 W · 115 L	-11.1wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x547f…2937backed Under	48c	619.04$297 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$321.9	138	56.5%78 W · 60 L	-5.7wins	-0.04per pick	61cpaid	-7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	47c	520$244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$275.6	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ebb…2b75backed Over	53c	462.96$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.37	81	48.1%39 W · 42 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	13c	456.68$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.65	2,012	51.2%1,031 W · 981 L	+43.6wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over	53c	417.99$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.53	1,725	50.1%864 W · 861 L	-4.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5b…ec01backed Under	47c	402.04$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.08	220	50.5%111 W · 109 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Under	47c	300$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159	1,206	53.7%648 W · 558 L	+29.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5145…dd71backed Under	48c	200$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-3.2wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-26%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c3c…e8c9backed Over	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	349	42.7%149 W · 200 L	-19.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Over	53c	195.64$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.69	478	52.3%250 W · 228 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under	47c	175$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$92.35	214	49.5%106 W · 108 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe66f…0f3ebacked Under	47c	159.49$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.53	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Under	48c	155.31$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.76	473	50.7%240 W · 233 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over	24c	122.96$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.01	5,126	54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L	+231.6wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under	47c	119.1$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.13	2,296	49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L	+37.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Under	48c	114.6$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.59	3,832	42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6feb…c082backed Under	47c	113.6$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.21	92	48.9%45 W · 47 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x68aa…0f92backed Over	53c	103.77$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f41…5ffcbacked Over	53c	103$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.59	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Under	47c	100$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53	787	54.6%430 W · 357 L	+27.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over	52c	95.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.92	2,800	49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Over	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,167	49%572 W · 595 L	+17.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Over	53c	94.17$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,195	50%597 W · 598 L	+5.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3e6b…8a98backed Under	47c	91.49$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.15	476	52.9%252 W · 224 L	+17.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba00…527bbacked Over	53c	79.83$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.31	143	51%73 W · 70 L	-4.6wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Under	68c	75.24$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.01	1,056	44.3%468 W · 588 L	-25.9wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…be26backed Under	47c	72$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.16	223	52.5%117 W · 106 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb3…b370backed Under	47c	65.04$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.47	195	55.9%109 W · 86 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd3c…35cfbacked Over	52c	64$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.28	127	52%66 W · 61 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf0…3620backed Under	47c	63.81$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.82	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.21per pick	41cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa188…62eabacked Under	48c	62.5$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.5	242	48.8%118 W · 124 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	74c	59.94$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.36	5,786	43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L	-192.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a81…9070backed Over	53c	47$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.91	272	52.9%144 W · 128 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ddd…73b2backed Over	54c	45.56$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	314	46.8%147 W · 167 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c96…0a39backed Under	49c	45.05$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.97	153	52.3%80 W · 73 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Under	49c	43.01$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.14	131	52.7%69 W · 62 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87f8…7de3backed Under	47c	43$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.79	381	42%160 W · 221 L	-5.1wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Under	47c	39.65$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.91	881	47.8%421 W · 460 L	+4.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcbb…07d9backed Over	53c	36.06$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.11	253	55.7%141 W · 112 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fd3…99b2backed Under	48c	34.56$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.97	35	48.6%17 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x345c…b59dbacked Over	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	43	44.2%19 W · 24 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-17%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under	74c	23$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.98	3,208	51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L	+146.6wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5this page
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event