MLB · resolved market
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x416f73b788cad3259262cfca9885a0fa96696efac040f803fdd4dc0d146c62a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,048
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,048 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked New York Yankees | 45c | 21,802$9,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,811.07 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 11,426$6,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,141.9 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 6,000$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 1,780$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 1,299$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.54 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2409…c116backed New York Yankees | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 292$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked New York Yankees | 45c | 262$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.9 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 244.26$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 170$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.5 | 214 | 49.5%106 W · 108 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 114.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked New York Yankees | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 98.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed New York Yankees | 46c | 75.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 70.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 65.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 56.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed New York Yankees | 42c | 48.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 45.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 58c | 43.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 43.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 37.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 256 | 55.1%141 W · 115 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed New York Yankees | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 32.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked New York Yankees | 41c | 30.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed New York Yankees | 45c | 29.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)this page
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5Under won
- New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)New York Yankees won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.