MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02044e11a67f7c306c584039aa9f19706f810d363bd76bf12b4a19b1fb61947e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,464
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 235.65$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 28c | 168$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ad…2161backed Over | 31c | 84.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 76.18$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2521…c3cbbacked Under | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 77cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 24c | 65.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 20c | 64.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4b…fd62backed Under | 74c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…5dc1backed Under | 73c | 34.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…594cbacked Under | 74c | 33.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…2ad0backed Under | 74c | 32.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x563d…94cabacked Under | 74c | 31.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…ab5dbacked Under | 74c | 29.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4141…b90fbacked Under | 74c | 29.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…a082backed Under | 74c | 29.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…35a1backed Under | 74c | 28.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb130…7767backed Under | 74c | 28.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65cf…5206backed Under | 74c | 28.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe933…0abcbacked Under | 74c | 27.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fbf…e37bbacked Under | 74c | 27.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb7…f54bbacked Under | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8c…7a0cbacked Under | 74c | 26.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0762…e8c1backed Under | 74c | 25.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…ac4abacked Under | 74c | 25.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb17a…c213backed Under | 74c | 25.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 74cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702a…d666backed Under | 74c | 24.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…cbc8backed Under | 74c | 24.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe2…49d1backed Under | 74c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb0…f977backed Under | 74c | 23.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe485…da3fbacked Under | 74c | 23.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8349…abaebacked Under | 74c | 23.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96c…1e56backed Under | 74c | 22.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40c1…6fc2backed Under | 74c | 21.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4901…b52dbacked Under | 74c | 21.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.29per pick | 63cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…ced7backed Under | 74c | 21.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x791a…6ddabacked Under | 74c | 21.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc063…dd72backed Under | 74c | 21.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…a945backed Under | 74c | 21.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f0…19f2backed Under | 74c | 21.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01d4…47a7backed Under | 74c | 20.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32c5…436cbacked Under | 74c | 20.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…8325backed Under | 74c | 20.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 61cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa290…7920backed Under | 74c | 20.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f7…d4a3backed Under | 74c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 63cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…9923backed Under | 74c | 17.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 69c | 15.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 289 | 43.3%125 W · 164 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.