MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c762da6fb2c1cb9bdcc848f46c40a284acc885982dad5de420017706d09f2a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,386
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 2,542$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.83 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 43c | 2,143$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.18 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Under | 55c | 964.15$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.01 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 54c | 677.77$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.8 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 78c | 675.78$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.67 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 45c | 606.59$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 46c | 469.33$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.44 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 47c | 373.27$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.33 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Over | 46c | 242.33$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.37 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Under | 49c | 212.47$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.47 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 21c | 200.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.88 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 49c | 176.65$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 23c | 111.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.36 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 80c | 99.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 20c | 93.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Under | 47c | 89.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Under | 44c | 88.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.64 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 45c | 78.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 75c | 72.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Under | 46c | 69.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 20c | 61.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 46c | 57.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 58c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 37.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8f…9166backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115e…5019backed Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeab5…da6bbacked Under | 45c | 24.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.