MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcdf6609a8d2a9811f9647217388e6466d87a8c52307217513f193ee9308d697
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 1,445$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.76 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 1,442$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.99 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 1,382$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.95 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 1,190$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.01 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Seattle Mariners | 28c | 999.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.99 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 985.86$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.46 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 641.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.03 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 399.92$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.95 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…8fd0backed Seattle Mariners | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…2b92backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 321.92$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.37 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 321.42$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.36 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 285.14$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.3 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 260$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 184.7$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.82 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 183$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 163.38$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Seattle Mariners | 30c | 120$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.43 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 81.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 79.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 79.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.16 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 70.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.38 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Baltimore Orioles | 25c | 63.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 548 | 15.9%87 W · 461 L | -41.1wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 58.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 362 | 50.3%182 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 58.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 57.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 52.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…1f9abacked Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 50.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 48.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.93 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 39.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 29.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Baltimore Orioles | 59c | 28.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…7027backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 16.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 15.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.