MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1340cd03ff5eeab055a688b323a0af8ab07d44eb5983c1960012ae5d59b922f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Over | 51c | 38,920$19,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,986.74 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 49c | 24,000$11,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,240 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…7e72backed Over | 52c | 16,165$8,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,405.92 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 10,541$5,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,450.7 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…1f30backed Over | 51c | 8,700$4,424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,424.06 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Under | 50c | 7,628$3,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,813.78 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 48c | 5,210$2,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,706.75 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 4,046$1,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,072.46 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 49c | 2,558$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.66 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 50c | 2,200$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 51c | 1,885$966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.65 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 1,632$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 49c | 1,448$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.7 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 1,447$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.67 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 42c | 1,301$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.02 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 49c | 1,260$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.8 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 50c | 1,202$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 51c | 1,075$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.17 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Over | 50c | 995.28$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.64 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 49c | 707.8$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.98 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c10…5d44backed Over | 51c | 578.09$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 50c | 577.72$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.72 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 480.04$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 38c | 360$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.21 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 297.04$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.49 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 49c | 258.66$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.35 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b8…898abacked Over | 51c | 245.1$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 49c | 244$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.12 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…118dbacked Under | 48c | 190.38$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 514 | 49.2%253 W · 261 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 179.77$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.27 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 49c | 160$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 24c | 151.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 49c | 133.69$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Under | 50c | 108$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Under | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 45c | 90.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 44c | 64.61$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b053backed Over | 52c | 59.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 52c | 53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 49c | 53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 176 | 45.5%80 W · 96 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 38c | 51.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…2b92backed Under | 76c | 51.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…724dbacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 179 | 53.1%95 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…6659backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 49c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 43.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…d5abbacked Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 41c | 32.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…f799backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…3b6cbacked Under | 52c | 26.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Under | 49c | 24.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 132 | 52.3%69 W · 63 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3136…3544backed Over | 52c | 24.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 48c | 23.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 57c | 20.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 52c | 20.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb224…dfa6backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a7…6d1dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b2…6a58backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 127 | 53.5%68 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 70c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Baltimore Orioles won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.