MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0218bd25024df5ec75ef18ce28d675935deab359f0b0d4b5a88b5eeb8b1cf890
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 999.86$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.09 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 668.24$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.34 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Toronto Blue Jays | 57c | 453.56$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.03 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 100.97$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 31c | 48.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 38.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 38.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 37.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 29.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…570cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 22.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 20.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 20.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 63c | 20.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-7.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-8.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona DiamondbacksToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 14.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 15.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 16.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.