MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b84b193e2828c0b2e7a8b48aafb23f3403467214a7864ec6507278df48522b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 46c | 2,903$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.51 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Over | 46c | 1,912$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.24 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 53c | 1,554$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.62 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…312ebacked Over | 47c | 1,523$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.24 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Under | 54c | 1,313$709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.13 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 47c | 1,301$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.67 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 46c | 1,247$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.6 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 53c | 1,242$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.46 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 54c | 1,002$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.95 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 54c | 924.98$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.49 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Under | 54c | 680.68$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.57 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 54c | 648.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.45 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 46c | 535.83$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.35 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 26c | 431.89$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 397.18$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.48 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 46c | 387.04$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 54c | 373.49$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.68 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Over | 51c | 222.85$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.72 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 46c | 220.87$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.27 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 49c | 193.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 46c | 191.66$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 54c | 180.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 55c | 145.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 785 | 50.2%394 W · 391 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 46c | 129.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 54c | 126.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 54c | 126.05$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.07 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 46c | 125.41$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Over | 46c | 105.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 52c | 75.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Under | 55c | 59.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 45c | 58.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 52c | 42.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 46c | 34.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 49c | 30.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…b579backed Over | 51c | 28.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 51c | 25.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 676 | 53.1%359 W · 317 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…f017backed Under | 55c | 22.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 51c | 19.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 54c | 19.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-5.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-7.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-8.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona DiamondbacksToronto Blue Jays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 14.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 15.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 16.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.