MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0257c84f268a4c7c819955209a8c92a4cc42c19f1cf683f6a6ad5d3cc8c97767
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 67c | 13,619$9,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,513.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 33c | 7,609$2,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,510.34 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 32c | 3,170$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.54 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 34c | 1,669$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.29 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 34c | 1,469$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.71 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 34c | 881.85$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.83 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 66c | 549.11$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.33 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 62c | 422.6$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.99 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Under | 59c | 293.1$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Over | 34c | 292.94$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.44 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 34c | 290.51$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.77 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Over | 38c | 210.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -10.8wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Over | 34c | 185.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Over | 31c | 184.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 34c | 151.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…49c1backed Over | 29c | 149.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Over | 34c | 73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…dc4ebacked Over | 34c | 71.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Under | 78c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Over | 21c | 63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Over | 34c | 60.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 67c | 54.57$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 64c | 50.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Over | 34c | 48.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…37d9backed Over | 36c | 48.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 34c | 35.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 57c | 33.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…ca40backed Under | 64c | 33.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 57c | 29.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…f03dbacked Over | 49c | 26.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf646…3f62backed Over | 49c | 26.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c4…dbd6backed Over | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd290…72bbbacked Over | 49c | 25.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc18d…18d7backed Over | 49c | 24.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49a…5c5fbacked Over | 49c | 23.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb395…5a34backed Over | 49c | 22.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda84…6f57backed Over | 49c | 22.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…70f2backed Over | 49c | 21.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.