MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29f08e9c6f38a2024b7f06d101a45ed1b012902af26459a274c09f3199021626
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,088
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 43c | 10,052$4,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,749.11 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 59c | 8,662$5,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,110.35 | 490 | 51%250 W · 240 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 4,676$2,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,210.86 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Under | 51c | 4,362$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,137.45 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 792 | 47.5%376 W · 416 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Under | 53c | 3,028$1,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.88 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 50c | 2,504$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.23 | 925 | 54.1%500 W · 425 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 2,106$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.54 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 53c | 1,518$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.31 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 50c | 1,336$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.8 | 926 | 45.9%425 W · 501 L | -12.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 50c | 1,319$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.75 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 52c | 1,154$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 51c | 1,111$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.56 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 1,024$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.28 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Under | 50c | 995.28$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.64 | 366 | 48.9%179 W · 187 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Under | 49c | 973.91$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.69 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Over | 47c | 900$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 879.94$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.76 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 52c | 851.29$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.09 | 577 | 53.2%307 W · 270 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 49c | 781.98$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.66 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…f59bbacked Under | 53c | 600$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 50c | 509.9$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.95 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf0…de6dbacked Under | 54c | 424.19$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.13 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 47c | 399$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.53 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 52c | 369.45$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.34 | 552 | 53.1%293 W · 259 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 51c | 334.47$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.71 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 57c | 288.47$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.09 | 301 | 50.8%153 W · 148 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 54c | 283$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.18 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 49c | 269$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.19 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 49c | 250$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.64 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 49c | 200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 53c | 194.34$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 24c | 148.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 119.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 43c | 116.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.47 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Over | 47c | 111.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 520 | 45.2%235 W · 285 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 45c | 99.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 51c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Over | 51c | 93.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Over | 35c | 92.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 57c | 90.3$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…2c05backed Under | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…ab3abacked Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 144 | 50.7%73 W · 71 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 48c | 80.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 49c | 77.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 48c | 72.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Under | 52c | 66.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 51c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e62…79f1backed Over | 50c | 51.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 420 | 47.9%201 W · 219 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd958…f864backed Under | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…18c6backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 45.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 49c | 40.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…0f4cbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 42c | 30.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…84f7backed Under | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…8e0cbacked Over | 49c | 29.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be0…ca40backed Under | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 51c | 24.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…6872backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…ed0dbacked Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.