MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06977cd8e5cdd71e35da81d721a7b2dff972c688aa7aa8bb98ab1fb0aa9a53a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Cleveland Guardians, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 26c | 9,799$2,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,514.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Cleveland Guardians | 25c | 9,494$2,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,329.43 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago White Sox | 73c | 7,496$5,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,015.28 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox | 72c | 4,913$3,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox | 75c | 4,478$3,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.98 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 75c | 2,260$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8c…9e9ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 1,736$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.67 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Chicago White Sox | 76c | 1,324$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.8 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 879$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.02 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 825.43$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.23 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0da…1f80backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 620.71$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.87 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cleveland Guardians | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Chicago White Sox | 78c | 399.98$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.46 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Chicago White Sox | 75c | 135.68$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 920 | 46%423 W · 497 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 121.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 111.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.11 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5a…9d75backed Cleveland Guardians | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 15.2%16 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 102.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Chicago White Sox | 74c | 83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 73.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Chicago White Sox | 73c | 69.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 68.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Chicago White Sox | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 62.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 62.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Chicago White Sox | 65c | 62.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 61.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…60bebacked Chicago White Sox | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 57.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…2aa4backed Chicago White Sox | 76c | 42.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Cleveland Guardians | 27c | 40.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 38.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Chicago White Sox | 72c | 36.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 33.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Chicago White Sox | 75c | 27.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2022…37d9backed Chicago White Sox | 67c | 22.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Chicago White Sox | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Chicago White Sox | 76c | 20.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Chicago White Sox | 72c | 16.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Chicago White Sox | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Chicago White Sox | 76c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.