Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x027064cc7c8429ea389c34820ee2f8b6843b143135c7b70f2c90e55c4cd50954
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rune Eatersof Virtus.pro, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Virtus.pro | 39c | 17,750$6,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,898.34 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Rune Eaters | 61c | 14,256$8,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,559.73 | 174 | 44.8%78 W · 96 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Rune Eaters | 61c | 4,000$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560 | 155 | 44.5%69 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Rune Eaters | 62c | 3,842$2,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,465.53 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…57e0backed Rune Eaters | 61c | 3,500$2,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…e4f6backed Virtus.pro | 39c | 3,000$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Virtus.pro | 39c | 2,969$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.03 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Virtus.pro | 38c | 1,276$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.04 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Rune Eaters | 60c | 1,018$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.23 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Virtus.pro | 38c | 852.91$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.11 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed Virtus.pro | 39c | 841.84$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.26 | 252 | 66.3%167 W · 85 L | +20.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Virtus.pro | 38c | 656.98$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.88 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Rune Eaters | 62c | 616.97$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.45 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Rune Eaters | 61c | 553.99$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Virtus.pro | 39c | 536.38$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.19 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…516bbacked Rune Eaters | 62c | 484.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.76 | 159 | 61%97 W · 62 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Rune Eaters | 61c | 472.12$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.22 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880b…90a8backed Virtus.pro | 40c | 429.49$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Rune Eaters | 61c | 324.66$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.62 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed Rune Eaters | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Rune Eaters | 62c | 280.89$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.74 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed Virtus.pro | 40c | 238.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Virtus.pro | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -6.8wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…7debbacked Virtus.pro | 50c | 198$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Rune Eaters | 50c | 182$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…eb0fbacked Virtus.pro | 39c | 170.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +17.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Virtus.pro | 39c | 170.13$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 222 | 60.4%134 W · 88 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Rune Eaters | 61c | 157.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Virtus.pro | 39c | 149.49$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Rune Eaters | 61c | 135$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed Rune Eaters | 61c | 127$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed Virtus.pro | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 62.8%54 W · 32 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Rune Eaters | 61c | 114.39$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.61 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Rune Eaters | 63c | 105.53$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 140 | 58.6%82 W · 58 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Rune Eaters | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c5…f991backed Virtus.pro | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed Virtus.pro | 37c | 91.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.76 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bd…ed2abacked Virtus.pro | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…2830backed Rune Eaters | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…dd4cbacked Rune Eaters | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c60…01febacked Virtus.pro | 39c | 74.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Virtus.pro | 62c | 64.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5b…62c7backed Rune Eaters | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | +7.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7229…ff73backed Virtus.pro | 40c | 63.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…6761backed Virtus.pro | 40c | 55.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Virtus.pro | 40c | 51.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b99…0080backed Virtus.pro | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x330f…91b1backed Virtus.pro | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dc…4f6ebacked Virtus.pro | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Virtus.pro | 38c | 49.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 250 | 47.6%119 W · 131 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Virtus.pro | 23c | 47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Rune Eaters | 61c | 46.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 325 | 48.9%159 W · 166 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a2…a9bfbacked Rune Eaters | 62c | 45.16$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 194 | 55.7%108 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Virtus.pro | 62c | 45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc96…2791backed Rune Eaters | 39c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Virtus.pro | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed Virtus.pro | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298f…b4e1backed Virtus.pro | 39c | 36.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Rune Eaters | 63c | 34.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…866ebacked Rune Eaters | 62c | 31.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 43 | 72.1%31 W · 12 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4358…3e76backed Rune Eaters | 62c | 30.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x54b4…748abacked Virtus.pro | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 130 | 26.2%34 W · 96 L | -15.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Rune Eaters | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Rune Eaters | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Rune Eaters | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 444 | 74.8%332 W · 112 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - Esports World Cup SurvivalRune Eaters won
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Virtus.pro - Game 2 WinnerRune Eaters won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.