NHL · resolved market
Spread: Wild (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x027a730f543cb5672dc5e3ad14b6f4bb479bbf9b96dcfc0187096da95a7d61dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wildof Wild, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Wild | 32c | 3,913$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,678.49 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Capitals | 69c | 1,035$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.15 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…d439backed Wild | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Capitals | 70c | 571.43$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 396 | 49.5%196 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45f…3e01backed Capitals | 66c | 400$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Capitals | 69c | 400$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…3e2bbacked Capitals | 71c | 352.11$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b70…5893backed Capitals | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…d2e8backed Capitals | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Wild | 29c | 278.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.04 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Capitals | 71c | 271.03$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.51 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Capitals | 69c | 250$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Capitals | 68c | 229.95$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.49 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Capitals | 68c | 213.49$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.17 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Capitals | 71c | 147.89$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Capitals | 68c | 143$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Capitals | 68c | 140$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Capitals | 69c | 120$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Wild | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Wild | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Capitals | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Capitals | 68c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 271 | 48.7%132 W · 139 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Capitals | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Wild | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Wild | 29c | 76.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Capitals | 61c | 75.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Capitals | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 264 | 48.9%129 W · 135 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Capitals | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Capitals | 69c | 65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.85 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Capitals | 69c | 63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.47 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Wild | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Capitals | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Capitals | 68c | 50.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Capitals | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Capitals | 69c | 46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Wild | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Capitals | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Capitals | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Capitals | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Capitals | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Capitals | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Capitals | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Capitals | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Capitals | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Capitals | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 190 | 46.8%89 W · 101 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Capitals | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 200 | 45.5%91 W · 109 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Capitals | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Wild | 31c | 38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Wild | 31c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Capitals | 69c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Wild | 31c | 34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Capitals | 69c | 33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Capitals | 70c | 30.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Capitals | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Capitals | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +11.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Capitals | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Capitals | 68c | 20.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 286 | 52.4%150 W · 136 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Capitals | 65c | 20.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Capitals | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Capitals | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 231 | 44.6%103 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Capitals | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Capitals | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Capitals | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Capitals | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Capitals | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Capitals | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…9302backed Capitals | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Capitals | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Capitals | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Capitals | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Capitals | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Capitals | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Capitals | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Capitals | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. WildWild won
- Capitals vs. Wild: O/U 5.5Under won
- Capitals vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.