NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Wild: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09b1678abf10874a5c376aa75ae7923a3a4925feee3695d916e2a5f6d6cf8836
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Over | 1c | 12,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Over | 2c | 2,800$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 46c | 2,525$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356.97 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…9124backed Over | 2c | 2,300$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 55c | 860.31$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.17 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 711.36$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.27 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 55c | 253.64$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Under | 47c | 244$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.32 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 204$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.16 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 54c | 192.94$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…ac62backed Over | 56c | 178.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Over | 55c | 151.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 46c | 138$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 47c | 126$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 47c | 121$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Under | 47c | 119$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…9871backed Under | 47c | 107.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 47c | 99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 47c | 98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Under | 47c | 98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.94 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 47c | 91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Under | 47c | 89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Over | 73c | 80$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Over | 53c | 76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 47c | 73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 53c | 71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Under | 47c | 68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 45c | 62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 54c | 59.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 23c | 57.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Under | 47c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 45c | 51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +11.1wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +49%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…aeb8backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 47c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 45c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2999…50bcbacked Over | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Over | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Over | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 53c | 44.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed Over | 53c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Over | 53c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed Over | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Over | 53c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked Over | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Over | 53c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb570…25dbbacked Over | 53c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Over | 53c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7219…fcf7backed Over | 53c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Over | 53c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed Over | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…d6bdbacked Over | 53c | 32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1594backed Under | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a7…261bbacked Over | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Over | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…218cbacked Over | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Over | 55c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4182…ae54backed Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b73…a19dbacked Over | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Under | 47c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Under | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 62 | 71%44 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…dde9backed Over | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Over | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96ae…89d9backed Over | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c4…a93bbacked Over | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x711d…fe4bbacked Over | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aeb…83e4backed Over | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b3…27babacked Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Over | 54c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Wild: O/U 5.5this page
- Capitals vs. WildWild won
- Capitals vs. Wild: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Wild won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.