NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Wild: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bb2a67945c696f8c47db4af036d644bad2aa7c6ec39e3ac1430545d4559f944
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a09…db1cbacked Under | 57c | 880$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 647.63$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.54 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 58c | 360$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.3 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 45c | 310$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Under | 57c | 264$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.19 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Under | 57c | 217$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.93 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Under | 57c | 201$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 43c | 184.68$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.41 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Under | 58c | 172$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Under | 57c | 145$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Over | 43c | 134$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 56c | 119$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 57c | 116$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.88 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Under | 56c | 103$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Under | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.5 | 457 | 56.2%257 W · 200 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…9f5abacked Over | 43c | 90$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 57c | 88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Under | 57c | 87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Under | 58c | 81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 44c | 76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 56c | 76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +9.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Over | 45c | 75.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +8.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 57c | 74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Over | 44c | 72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Under | 56c | 71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Under | 57c | 68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Under | 56c | 67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 57c | 66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…0c60backed Over | 42c | 62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 58c | 58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Under | 57c | 57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Over | 42c | 57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Over | 42c | 55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a3…dac6backed Over | 43c | 51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 44c | 50.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Over | 43c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 56c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Over | 43c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Over | 44c | 48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Over | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…73c9backed Over | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Over | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…7893backed Over | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Over | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Over | 44c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4669…785ebacked Under | 58c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Over | 43c | 36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Over | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7a…d321backed Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 255 | 50.2%128 W · 127 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2d…ffcebacked Over | 43c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Over | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Over | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Over | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed Over | 44c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Under | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97de…15eabacked Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Over | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 57c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf683…f2dfbacked Over | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Over | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Over | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…edcebacked Over | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9cebbacked Over | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x152c…3b50backed Over | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Over | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Over | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7773…f936backed Over | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Over | 43c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Over | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 55c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Under | 58c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Wild: O/U 6.5this page
- Capitals vs. WildWild won
- Capitals vs. Wild: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Wild won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.