Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02a0659965dc38d5103afc853edccd7b8f850486bacd7870c308ac7c07c2882c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Under | 61c | 4,082$2,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,585.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 67c | 2,603$1,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.94 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 2,400$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.5 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…c033backed Under | 73c | 1,785$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 27c | 1,602$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.49 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 37c | 1,387$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.14 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 37c | 1,054$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.98 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 74c | 891$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.85 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 72c | 630$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.98 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 27c | 555.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 27c | 440$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.8 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 25c | 366$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.67 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 26c | 344.32$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Over | 27c | 320$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 63c | 317.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.54 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 26c | 314.56$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Under | 77c | 283.93$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Over | 26c | 231.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 25c | 199$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 25c | 188.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 98 | 38.8%38 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 25c | 188$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 74c | 137.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Under | 60c | 108.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Under | 67c | 103.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Under | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 25c | 61.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 29c | 54.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 26c | 51.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404f…f2a1backed Under | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Over | 26c | 46.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Over | 26c | 45.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 28c | 41.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Over | 26c | 40.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6315…10edbacked Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 39c | 28.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Under | 60c | 26.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 76c | 18.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6e…6e40backed Under | 74c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c3…443ebacked Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.