Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf751e6140601f9c27f10c92e430d2a4eebd53ba2ff2c4f8e58e69a3f01c3060
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 46c | 3,145$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,683.16 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 34c | 2,974$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,965.81 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 16c | 2,171$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 33c | 875.01$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.66 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Yes | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 72c | 688.87$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.31 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 31c | 671.6$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.03 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 68c | 632.35$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…6d03backed Yes | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 66c | 483$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.61 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…c875backed Yes | 67c | 447.76$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 53c | 435.85$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Yes | 66c | 402.13$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.41 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 66c | 378$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.48 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 62c | 373.41$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.3 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…f949backed Yes | 67c | 373.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 66c | 356$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.96 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 66c | 333.74$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.27 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb437…cfb3backed Yes | 65c | 299.96$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.97 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff6…2712backed Yes | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57bb…9302backed Yes | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 79c | 281.29$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.76 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed No | 25c | 279.64$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.49 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 33c | 240.54$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.21 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 33c | 232$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.44 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 66c | 207$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.28 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…69cebacked Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 57 | 71.9%41 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed No | 38c | 194.32$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.48 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 37c | 194.09$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Yes | 66c | 150.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98f2…65dcbacked Yes | 68c | 148.65$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…a8febacked Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed No | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…9b61backed No | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed No | 38c | 121.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.86 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Yes | 74c | 120$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Yes | 51c | 109.8$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 65c | 99.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…efaabacked Yes | 38c | 98.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Yes | 68c | 87.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 33c | 81.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Yes | 67c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 50c | 54.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 49c | 51.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc4…a77fbacked Yes | 65c | 49.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc080…f9a0backed Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 42c | 40.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 32c | 33.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4d…dd64backed Yes | 67c | 33.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6315…10edbacked No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed No | 38c | 30.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fb…c51bbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Yes | 67c | 28.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1718…c327backed Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…4094backed Yes | 67c | 20.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…a1f2backed Yes | 77c | 18.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…582abacked Yes | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 58cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.