TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,447
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,447 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a91…c6b1backed Over69c10,543$7,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,258.516761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under31c6,163$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,252.4538748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under32c4,306$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,926.393,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Over68c4,000$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,719.995952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed Under32c1,540$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,047.366744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed Under32c1,200$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8166549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Under32c1,040$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.26446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x397e…3d84backed Over74c953.04$705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.0544655.4%247 W · 199 L+22.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over48c933.04$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.7928345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under60c905.74$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.011,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under31c845.5$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$579.2343532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under31c791.16$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.9228755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over45c724.64$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.533737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Under32c624$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.327050%35 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under31c611.83$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.8211338.9%44 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over15c606.94$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8149143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94a5…4eb8backed Over67c605.18$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.472356.5%13 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under34c539.73$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.6269851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x208c…6b98backed Over68c494.07$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.97520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Under33c451.76$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.764938.8%19 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Under34c445.63$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.635040%20 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ebc…01c6backed Under31c435.48$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Under37c427.57$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.149248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under24c405.25$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.2753140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under31c400$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27629855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Under36c387.75$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.674544.4%20 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+29.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under73c375.43$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.112,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdabd…6adabacked Under22c336.59$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.844858.3%28 W · 20 L+8.8wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+49.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Over16c329.41$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538844.3%39 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf5b…5d3abacked Over69c289.86$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5b…9b61backed Under34c269.3$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.741656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+52.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1399…48c8backed Over66c265.2$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.7112460.5%75 W · 49 L+19.9wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+46.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa494…4a1fbacked Over67c261.4$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.144650%23 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under33c247.53$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.381,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Over69c234.5$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.812568%17 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+43.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaad3…d0d2backed Under39c229.88$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.113246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Under32c217.66$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.7316846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under33c213.05$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.7442046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd443…5f71backed Under53c206.99$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.983259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over63c200.24$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1581732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over65c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3696…69cebacked Over68c199.98$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.995771.9%41 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+25.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe41f…99febacked Over49c194.71$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.41933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under33c193.76$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.8220845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0fce…c02abacked Under8c173.01$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.17650%3 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+251.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x014c…38ccbacked Under33c150.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.014969.4%34 W · 15 L+8.6wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+48.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6717…d6ebbacked Over67c148.46$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+51.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef18…4d70backed Over64c138.1$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3816464%105 W · 59 L+28.5wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+49.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xa6af…b5efbacked Over74c135.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006147.5%29 W · 32 L-8.5wins-0.14per pick62cpaid-28.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over66c132.3$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.4416056.9%91 W · 69 L+13.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under31c132$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.081,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7157…7ba4backed Over50c115$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.52857.1%16 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+54.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under23c114.95$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.837136.6%26 W · 45 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Over49c103.07$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.41540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d63…2e49backed Over58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x97b2…1c44backed Over50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505655.4%31 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd816…a60ebacked Over46c98.91$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Under53c94.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.432850%14 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5465…ba43backed Over66c75.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504062.5%25 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf6e…c865backed Over46c69$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.74650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x030d…8e95backed Over79c68.61$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.934045%18 W · 22 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-11.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Over58c67.24$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910532.4%34 W · 71 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under31c66$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.548451.2%43 W · 41 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c3d…3681backed Over80c62.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50977.8%7 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick78cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7736…c991backed Over68c58.73$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.01862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick69cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde25…c0a5backed Under33c56.51$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.663145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1250…db19backed Under61c48.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.86944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick60cpaid-27.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Over64c48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.617456.9%99 W · 75 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under31c44$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+135.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over69c43.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over69c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.612843%55 W · 73 L-9.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.222854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1611065.5%72 W · 38 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…7f72backed Under54c39.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81d7…32d8backed Under32c39.06$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.56966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+77.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked Over69c38.15$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.321838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.20per pick59cpaid-38.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Over46c35$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1964043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over63c33.83$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2710956%61 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9fb…c51bbacked Over67c29.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203961.5%24 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc551…fa51backed Over67c29.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.726264.5%40 W · 22 L+7.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+23.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa38e…8917backed Over67c29.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.724759.6%28 W · 19 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd93…56c0backed Over67c29.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.725457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7203…795abacked Over67c29.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.726564.6%42 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x03f5…3047backed Over68c29.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208863.6%56 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b78…473dbacked Over67c28.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.245358.5%31 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Over69c28.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.445152.9%27 W · 24 L-6.3wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-18.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Under53c24$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.284151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over74c19.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.172951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Over74c19.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.115648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1171…16cfbacked Over73c15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.95666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.