Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9e60412fc16d83fa5786921681f7b31bb6369b1305bc2c69181552c95dce1d2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 45c | 9,323$4,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,195.26 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 7,676$4,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,530.32 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f19…6aabbacked Over | 46c | 7,000$3,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,220 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5634…d81abacked Under | 55c | 4,500$2,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,045.97 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Under | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.95 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Under | 53c | 2,368$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.96 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 53c | 1,840$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.8 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 1,400$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Over | 47c | 1,348$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.38 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 27c | 1,292$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.24 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 912.06$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.97 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 58c | 900$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 46c | 880$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.15 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 49c | 700$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 37c | 700$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 47c | 633$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.51 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 47c | 624$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.28 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 507.76$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.24 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…dac0backed Over | 47c | 490$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.3 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Over | 44c | 473$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.12 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 47c | 448.3$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.46 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 34c | 441.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 45c | 397.8$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.01 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 43c | 391.88$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.37 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 47c | 372$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.84 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 54c | 315.51$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.13 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 42c | 305.4$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.63 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Over | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 45c | 251$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.7 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 49c | 247$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.03 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…810cbacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 50cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 51c | 210$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 45c | 203$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 45c | 188$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Under | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 56c | 134$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.96 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 50c | 107.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e3…3792backed Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 44c | 89.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 45c | 88.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f7…f399backed Under | 38c | 83.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Over | 46c | 77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Under | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 48c | 67.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 58c | 54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 46c | 44.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 54c | 44.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe743…ce0fbacked Over | 46c | 43.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 53c | 43.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec2…e905backed Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 46c | 38.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 49c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 45c | 35.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked Under | 55c | 35.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed Under | 47c | 34.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.59 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Over | 46c | 30.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…32d8backed Over | 46c | 27.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Over | 45c | 22.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 4.5Under won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5)1. FSV Mainz 05 won
- Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.