Mls · resolved market
Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02a0ce7ccd1d8d2dc8646b753a7fbe3aee6b38eadb85b9c291ca302a97481eab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 38c | 2,164$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.8 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 1,627$1,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.85 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 71c | 1,456$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.16 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 32c | 962.13$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.33 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 43c | 622.86$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.64 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…9164backed Yes | 37c | 540.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 33c | 434$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.22 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 67c | 357$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.26 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Yes | 39c | 334$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.26 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 40c | 201.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 62c | 159.69$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 59c | 123.56$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 71c | 122.95$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b4…f6d1backed Yes | 38c | 118.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 39c | 115.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8b…aa8dbacked Yes | 37c | 110.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 41c | 84.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 59c | 80.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dca…f3cfbacked Yes | 47c | 75.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.18 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +72%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…692dbacked No | 61c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 73c | 61.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 22c | 61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 38c | 54.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Yes | 38c | 50.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 43c | 50.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 57c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Yes | 34c | 44.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…45e0backed Yes | 47c | 41.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 43c | 37.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 126 | 67.5%85 W · 41 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 34c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 57c | 24.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 67c | 21.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-02-21?No won
- Will St. Louis City SC vs. Charlotte FC end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.