Europa Conference League · resolved market
Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02a4146562b95ac24d194e72d556a4550ade713a2c62242b30bf2bc81cd33174
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,488
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 7,560$3,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,166.56 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 55c | 3,566$1,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.55 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 62c | 1,380$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.87 | 1,611 | 38.8%625 W · 986 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 42c | 1,306$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.95 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 69c | 1,298$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.23 | 639 | 57.1%365 W · 274 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5902…59fabacked Over | 54c | 999.97$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.99 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 53c | 826.17$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.3 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f7…7656backed Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 42c | 463.46$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.64 | 299 | 59.5%178 W · 121 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c2…73bfbacked Under | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc374…cee1backed Over | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +184.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 60c | 277.55$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 771 | 41.8%322 W · 449 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 61c | 235.67$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.78 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 5c | 235.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 797 | 32.2%257 W · 540 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 36c | 204.27$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 49c | 166.26$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed Over | 62c | 162.4$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 48c | 154.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 48c | 152.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 44c | 144$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed Over | 74c | 135.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 71c | 129$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9907backed Under | 45c | 119.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 42c | 110.17$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 69c | 105.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 40c | 98.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 296 | 54.1%160 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…3ea6backed Under | 39c | 95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb797…1cf3backed Over | 61c | 90.16$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 87.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 38c | 86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0363…d67abacked Over | 61c | 81.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 79.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 240 | 49.2%118 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 42c | 73.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 795 | 54.1%430 W · 365 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 58c | 71.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 978 | 46.2%452 W · 526 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 58c | 71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 2,344 | 41.6%976 W · 1,368 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb985…cf92backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Over | 73c | 49.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 55c | 47.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5905…a34cbacked Over | 65c | 45.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 53c | 43.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 571 | 49.6%283 W · 288 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over | 73c | 40.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Over | 71c | 38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x096f…1e33backed Over | 54c | 30.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 61c | 29.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1,117 | 35.8%400 W · 717 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d4…5d18backed Under | 52c | 29.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 63c | 26.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…4094backed Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 60c | 22.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Over | 73c | 19.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 2.5this page
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: Ferencvárosi TC O/U 2.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 1.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 3.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 5.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: Team to AdvanceFerencvárosi TC won
- Spread: FC Twente '65 (-1.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
- Spread: FC Twente '65 (-2.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5)FC Twente '65 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.