Europa Conference League · resolved market
Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: Team to Advance
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x122e0ad37acf016419779e3ea4616e978876c02864eb20518612c25eb60da7e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ferencvárosi TCof Ferencvárosi TC, FC Twente '65
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x854d…deb0backed FC Twente '65 | 34c | 999.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed FC Twente '65 | 30c | 701.17$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.35 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…ae9dbacked Ferencvárosi TC | 70c | 700$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd3…ac03backed FC Twente '65 | 33c | 600$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…947abacked Ferencvárosi TC | 66c | 379.1$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.89 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Ferencvárosi TC | 67c | 372.75$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.01 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Ferencvárosi TC | 67c | 347.85$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.79 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbc…f42bbacked FC Twente '65 | 34c | 264.71$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…7050backed FC Twente '65 | 47c | 221.8$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed FC Twente '65 | 31c | 218.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 381 | 44.1%168 W · 213 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Ferencvárosi TC | 67c | 192$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…a782backed Ferencvárosi TC | 68c | 169.53$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed FC Twente '65 | 33c | 142.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf9…3ddbbacked Ferencvárosi TC | 70c | 142.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked Ferencvárosi TC | 70c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Ferencvárosi TC | 53c | 76.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +9.4wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ferencvárosi TC | 53c | 76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed FC Twente '65 | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Ferencvárosi TC | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Ferencvárosi TC | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Ferencvárosi TC | 66c | 60.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 793 | 54.2%430 W · 363 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e1…2f5fbacked Ferencvárosi TC | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Ferencvárosi TC | 53c | 49.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.9wins | +0.35per pick | 43cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…8002backed FC Twente '65 | 33c | 44.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a7…3172backed Ferencvárosi TC | 66c | 22.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: Team to Advancethis page
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: Ferencvárosi TC O/U 2.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 1.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 2.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 3.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. FC Twente '65: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Twente '65 (-1.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
- Spread: FC Twente '65 (-2.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5)FC Twente '65 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.