Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02ba3dd0ae4102f4cb204a24391cc2d4d56d7926e5d3aedcd5262f14ecc3c0b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 17c | 416.16$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.46 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 324.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 22c | 312.57$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.91 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked No | 80c | 296.95$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 78c | 284.49$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.59 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 19c | 235$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 207.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 11c | 198.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 77c | 171.06$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.07 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb218…6261backed No | 78c | 118.2$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 100.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…e43cbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 22c | 95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d95…5fe2backed Yes | 27c | 92.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 88.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 81.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 22c | 79.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacca…8996backed Yes | 15c | 78.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbb…04febacked No | 80c | 71.35$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 77c | 68.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Yes | 17c | 60.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 78c | 56.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 22c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 24c | 49.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 79c | 44.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 80c | 43.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 41.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f33…da59backed No | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed No | 80c | 21.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44c…48a4backed No | 77c | 14.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C or below on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or higher on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.