Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fe9f18f0400a7a627afe1945d4f5d61d26b9f49e2a7ed722c48bf6382636ec5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 31c | 1,078$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.25 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 8c | 851.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 28c | 684.49$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.64 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 6c | 528.11$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 18c | 323.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.81 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 80c | 302.45$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 244$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 71c | 243.65$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 63c | 240.14$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 22c | 199.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 27c | 199.34$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.72 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…8cebbacked Yes | 26c | 188.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 185.6$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 19c | 185.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 176.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 176.19$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 170.82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 151.17$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 149.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 70c | 149.68$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 76c | 145.52$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 142.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 139.89$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 26c | 138.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 130.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 27c | 118.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 24c | 109.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa6…49a1backed No | 79c | 103.03$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 19c | 100.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 78.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 75c | 66.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 78c | 65.77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked No | 65c | 65.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed Yes | 28c | 59.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 19c | 56.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 55.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 74c | 48.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 48.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 47.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 21c | 47.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked Yes | 23c | 44.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 76c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 37c | 34.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd5…ac4dbacked Yes | 34c | 33.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed No | 70c | 33.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 61c | 33.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 32.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…d077backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 68c | 24.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked No | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 73c | 22.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed No | 73c | 22.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 78c | 19.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 16.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 67c | 15.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 66c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…f810backed No | 75c | 14.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 71c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C or below on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or higher on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.