Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1cc45e8738052370e4d10c6259e88f4921f3d49be0da851e7acccc8b917e5d46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,500
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 56c | 703.86$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.05 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 5c | 411.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 57c | 344.12$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.19 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 18c | 283.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 15c | 233.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 39c | 209.6$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.45 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…7db5backed Yes | 42c | 208.79$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.45 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 31c | 195.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.55 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 193.65$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.9 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 44c | 192.24$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.78 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 39c | 188.74$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 29c | 178.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 168.39$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.42 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 161.1$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.05 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 35c | 159.83$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 135$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 124$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 123.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 112.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 107.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 22c | 100.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 53c | 94.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 32c | 90$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 12c | 85.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 34c | 83.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 77c | 74.58$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 73.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 17c | 66.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 41c | 64.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.37 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 32c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 40c | 62.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 48c | 62.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 43c | 62.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01d0…7b12backed No | 34c | 57.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes | 65c | 53.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…88a2backed Yes | 44c | 53.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes | 60c | 52.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 122 | 28.7%35 W · 87 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 50.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 41c | 50.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 50c | 48.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 59c | 48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 54c | 44.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 46c | 43.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked Yes | 48c | 43.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 47c | 42.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 27c | 42.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…d53dbacked No | 62c | 40.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 137 | 55.5%76 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 38c | 40.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 48c | 38.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 53c | 38.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 41c | 37.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 48c | 37.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked No | 45c | 35.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 35.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 34.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 41c | 34.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 61c | 32.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 65c | 32.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 49c | 32.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 55c | 31.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 47c | 29.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 75c | 29.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 36c | 28.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 36c | 28.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 57c | 28.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 80c | 26.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 23.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 46c | 23.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb040…ef71backed No | 63c | 21.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes | 50c | 20.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7d…fd73backed No | 51c | 19.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -7.0wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 66c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdcd…542abacked Yes | 78c | 14.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C or below on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C or higher on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.