Mls · resolved market
Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02cfa764ff3687bf7dfd40fe5c0e52d21a4f02f00b995429131b53d650f8afd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Cincinnatiof FC Cincinnati, Orlando City SC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Orlando City SC | 78c | 992.92$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.44 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0568…dc48backed FC Cincinnati | 50c | 977$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FC Cincinnati | 80c | 461.77$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.58 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8e…7fe3backed FC Cincinnati | 47c | 413$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FC Cincinnati | 80c | 389$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.8 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked FC Cincinnati | 21c | 380.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.34 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Orlando City SC | 54c | 349.74$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.9 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked FC Cincinnati | 73c | 186.43$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed FC Cincinnati | 19c | 112$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.72 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked FC Cincinnati | 80c | 108.34$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed FC Cincinnati | 23c | 84.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked FC Cincinnati | 37c | 49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed FC Cincinnati | 80c | 40.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 46 | 73.9%34 W · 12 L | +6.9wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed FC Cincinnati | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.