Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf04d561f62de70d33ecff05a79878654bd3ac0a67e1c3a296a5852c5253b4cbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,587
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,587 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 13c | 4,799$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.22 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 25c | 1,656$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.38 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 75c | 1,161$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.48 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 25c | 342.85$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 25c | 227.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 75c | 225.2$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Over | 78c | 215.22$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 74c | 205.31$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 74c | 168$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 74c | 159.32$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.19 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 25c | 154.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Over | 77c | 129.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 74c | 95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked Over | 74c | 81.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 79c | 62.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Over | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 74c | 53.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 74c | 53.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 74c | 53.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 70c | 52.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 74c | 51.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 23c | 50.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Over | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Over | 73c | 49.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 74c | 48.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Over | 75c | 45.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 75c | 32.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 73c | 31.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 74c | 26.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 78c | 24.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…d590backed Over | 74c | 16.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 74c | 15.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.