Mls · resolved market
Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5195a253c5f7e8876664c63db5d826f2b69642d53a116af5fa70ed7aa88ebdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Cincinnatiof FC Cincinnati, Orlando City SC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7203…795abacked FC Cincinnati | 32c | 769.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.09 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked FC Cincinnati | 37c | 763.38$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Orlando City SC | 63c | 669.05$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.37 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Orlando City SC | 70c | 635.3$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.71 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked FC Cincinnati | 23c | 576.76$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.29 | 191 | 72.3%138 W · 53 L | +36.8wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Orlando City SC | 60c | 416$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed FC Cincinnati | 35c | 415.28$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.49 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FC Cincinnati | 40c | 408.52$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.86 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked FC Cincinnati | 70c | 187.74$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.41 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Orlando City SC | 70c | 136.29$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked FC Cincinnati | 35c | 95.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.36 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Orlando City SC | 30c | 41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed FC Cincinnati | 36c | 38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FC Cincinnati | 49c | 36.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Orlando City SC | 65c | 21.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked FC Cincinnati | 55c | 18.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Orlando City SC | 64c | 16.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed FC Cincinnati | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Orlando City SC | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.