Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85d7acc8bfe2ec7b73f440f8bb5b5a829d1c5216a378f3886adabaebce0cd310
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 30c | 2,172$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.07 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Over | 61c | 1,120$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 52c | 1,108$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.46 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 63c | 1,092$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.96 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 77c | 656.13$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Over | 37c | 572.23$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.91 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +121.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 64c | 489.91$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.45 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 53c | 466.58$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.14 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 74c | 399.9$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.65 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 58c | 395.6$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.13 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 70c | 374.05$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.8 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 352.15$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.18 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 29c | 299.25$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.73 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 39c | 260$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1c…3347backed Over | 48c | 250$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 57c | 210$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…d590backed Over | 68c | 207.25$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 58c | 193.1$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.05 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 64c | 182.09$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.17 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…0dedbacked Under | 62c | 153.56$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 53c | 143.83$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Over | 35c | 118.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 62c | 117$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 49c | 101.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x140e…cf85backed Under | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0497…c5e3backed Over | 29c | 88.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…38ccbacked Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 38c | 77.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 38c | 76.42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.38 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Over | 48c | 73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 36c | 65.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 63c | 65.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 64c | 57.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 39c | 57.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 70c | 55.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 50c | 44.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 41.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +10.7wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 56c | 36.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…b19fbacked Under | 41c | 32.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 74c | 32.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…7af9backed Over | 58c | 31.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 50c | 27.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 48c | 24.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…eea0backed Under | 50c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 61c | 21.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 68c | 19.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Over | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 74c | 13.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Orlando City SC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.