Australian A League · resolved market
Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02cfd9ee71e539c8d2ef31a465bb63765a1017612ae53d0d8625952aa6ba098e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,259
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,259 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 14c | 2,135$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.5 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 1,619$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.91 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4538…d6d3backed Yes | 4c | 1,225$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,150$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 4c | 875$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 75c | 788.99$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.53 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 76c | 580.56$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.33 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 25c | 516.54$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.25 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 74c | 397.51$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.44 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8835…472cbacked Yes | 21c | 395.14$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 22c | 381.96$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.85 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 30c | 327.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.3wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…017cbacked Yes | 23c | 318.22$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 24c | 296.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.43 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 24c | 211$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 77c | 210.22$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 24c | 200.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…62d3backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2683…2be7backed Yes | 23c | 195.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…baa4backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…224dbacked Yes | 30c | 116.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 28c | 103.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 72c | 94$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed Yes | 21c | 93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 23c | 58.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5778…86c0backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…5394backed Yes | 26c | 49.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Yes | 28c | 43.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596e…7b82backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked No | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-01-03?No won
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-01-03?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.