Australian A League · resolved market
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-01-03?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f9fd5ab3ec103cc989777fba33c2abfab3a02a8b7a866f9bee54109e5912fb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b9c…57b3backed Yes | 46c | 9,018$4,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,849.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 19c | 7,901$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.5 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 59c | 6,000$3,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,519.99 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 37c | 5,820$2,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,157.6 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 24c | 3,162$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.75 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 10c | 2,475$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.42 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Yes | 71c | 1,907$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.27 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 19c | 1,637$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.43 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,610$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.4 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 19c | 1,500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,215 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4538…d6d3backed No | 2c | 1,095$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 1,071$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.43 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881b…9893backed No | 24c | 1,048$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 18c | 1,019$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.63 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…1e75backed Yes | 18c | 955.22$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +174%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…bc18backed No | 7c | 934.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 57c | 847.8$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.95 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc44…3b40backed No | 7c | 815$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 6c | 812.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 46c | 757.43$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.17 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 78c | 650.37$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.8 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…0d90backed Yes | 78c | 643.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Yes | 33c | 601.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f9…cd95backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 20c | 436.46$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.08 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 28c | 392$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.44 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 79c | 378.43$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 16c | 375$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e06…5a9bbacked No | 59c | 368.74$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…baa4backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…fca3backed Yes | 18c | 329.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +208.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981c…7f14backed Yes | 23c | 328.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Yes | 19c | 300$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.5 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked No | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 72c | 296.26$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.95 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0499…7066backed No | 11c | 282.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed No | 60c | 280$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 35c | 276.38$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.49 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked No | 76c | 213.62$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.03 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdea7…6b46backed No | 10c | 213.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked No | 38c | 209.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.67 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe02a…8e83backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Yes | 19c | 166$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.46 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +6.4wins | +0.54per pick | 21cpaid | +326.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 80c | 153.75$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 18c | 150$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14f8…d47abacked Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…3d44backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 20c | 106.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed No | 73c | 105.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4160…e42dbacked No | 20c | 103.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…d27ebacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…d2cbbacked No | 77c | 90.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 16c | 74.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +83%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked No | 80c | 63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…2da7backed Yes | 25c | 62.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd263…54a7backed No | 27c | 61.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 26c | 61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 70c | 56.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 62c | 51.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd934…a00abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 32c | 46.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +22.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Yes | 30c | 39.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32e…7f7bbacked Yes | 74c | 39.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff4…d53cbacked Yes | 80c | 37.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x916d…308abacked Yes | 41c | 36.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 67c | 30.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed No | 59c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932d…68d5backed No | 53c | 23.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7202…e9b1backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…a1e4backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…59bdbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb694…023ebacked Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-01-03?this page
- Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2026-01-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.