Movies · resolved market
Will Charlie Davis be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02d2a7107f5a2a651e606a9600d11233a9aa83a2b93d40219731759bfb5929e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,633 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 74c | 5,004$3,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,697.75 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed No | 34c | 4,607$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,047.14 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a83…66b9backed Yes | 1c | 2,937$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…0feabacked Yes | 15c | 847.38$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f9…4191backed Yes | 16c | 646.96$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 8c | 577.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc31…4109backed Yes | 15c | 408.16$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf948…0931backed No | 31c | 399.66$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.83 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -8.8wins | -0.49per pick | 60cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…1c74backed Yes | 19c | 382.59$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a61…5136backed Yes | 15c | 327.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x464a…4aa5backed Yes | 9c | 229.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked No | 26c | 123.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x894b…93ccbacked No | 26c | 123.14$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 26c | 123.04$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf664…c89bbacked No | 34c | 107.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dad…4e9fbacked Yes | 13c | 90.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…eed0backed No | 26c | 75.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 77c | 70.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 44.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 64c | 32.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Charlie Davis be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?this page
- Will Angelina Keeley be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?No won
- Will Aubry Bracco be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?No won
- Will Christian Hubicki be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?No won
- Will Cirie Fields be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?No won
- Will Colby Donaldson be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?No won
- Will Dee Valladares be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?No won
- Will Joe Hunter be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?No won
- Will Jonathan Young be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?No won
- Will Rick Devens be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?No won
- Will Rizo Velovic be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?No won
- Will Stephenie LaGrossa Kendrick be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?No won
- Will Tiffany Nicole Ervin be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.