TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Angelina Keeley be voted off Survivor Season 50 this week?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,091

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,091 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes74c5,014$3,705 inLost-$3,70519440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No36c4,748$1,696 inWon+$3,052.142642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid+45.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a83…66b9backed Yes1c3,369$25 inLost-$2520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98b8…b240backed Yes21c1,213$249 inLost-$248.7890%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb32…0feabacked Yes12c1,089$130 inLost-$13020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes7c1,011$72 inLost-$72.23476.4%3 W · 44 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-75.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a61…5136backed Yes11c859.84$99 inLost-$98.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f9…4191backed Yes16c631.27$102 inLost-$102333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dad…4e9fbacked Yes12c495.36$57 inLost-$57.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc31…4109backed Yes13c472.51$60 inLost-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf948…0931backed No32c415.62$134 inWon+$281.921811.1%2 W · 16 L-8.8wins-0.49per pick60cpaid-64.8%equal weight27-0.20 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked No78c173.21$136 inWon+$37.652445.8%11 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4796…79fcbacked No26c124.6$32 inWon+$92.2922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.0wins-0.33per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x894b…93ccbacked No26c124.6$32 inWon+$92.21020%2 W · 8 L-3.5wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed No26c119$31 inWon+$88.063046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked No80c112.76$90 inWon+$22.93771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf664…c89bbacked No36c106.7$39 inWon+$67.78757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+103.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb70b…6087backed No79c100$79 inWon+$20.811633.6%39 W · 77 L+0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e4a…1c74backed Yes45c87.51$39 inLost-$39.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6994…eed0backed No26c73.02$19 inWon+$54.031020%2 W · 8 L-3.6wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-23.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7cc6…02ddbacked Yes25c50$13 inLost-$12.54734%16 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No75c49.99$38 inWon+$12.41776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick69cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No60c25$15 inWon+$9.968351.8%43 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No79c18.06$14 inWon+$3.881637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.