La Liga · resolved market
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0305bc35c6ddddbf52108b1925d1d0b70a10ac27d55c70e2f20be99eb38a9b5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Under | 44c | 8,701$3,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,794.21 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 53c | 5,096$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,404.05 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 58c | 3,369$1,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,431.56 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…5a97backed Under | 45c | 1,371$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 15c | 1,233$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.42 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 55c | 989.09$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.48 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…9e22backed Over | 64c | 403.02$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 39c | 328.21$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.21 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Over | 30c | 300$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.3 | 128 | 21.1%27 W · 101 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 70c | 284$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.8 | 999 | 33.4%334 W · 665 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…6dc8backed Under | 60c | 213.08$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.07 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 46c | 213.04$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.04 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +14.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53d4…6d50backed Over | 76c | 206.18$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 39c | 193.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 284 | 46.5%132 W · 152 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 49c | 149.21$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…2b4bbacked Over | 67c | 111.84$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 64c | 111.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 417 | 51.8%216 W · 201 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 56c | 97.81$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5e…9d93backed Over | 70c | 92.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +147%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 72c | 91.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 38c | 84.21$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 46c | 67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf215…79ccbacked Under | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…b629backed Over | 29c | 65.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 69c | 57.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b0…a3b6backed Over | 62c | 51.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8e…b1d0backed Under | 44c | 46.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe766…7843backed Under | 43c | 45.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…0dbdbacked Over | 45c | 44.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed Over | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 37c | 34.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 65c | 31.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 74c | 29.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 64c | 29.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 192 | 58.9%113 W · 79 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…bbbabacked Over | 62c | 24.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Málaga CF (-1.5)UD Almería won
- Spread: UD Almería (-1.5)Málaga CF won
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Málaga CF 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Málaga CF O/U 0.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Málaga CF O/U 1.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: Málaga CF O/U 2.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 0.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 2.5Over won
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 4.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 5.5Under won
- UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: UD Almería O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.