Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on September 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x031712ba0e4665534b608a38942be167512f5c43cb9eb547562a2a09e884bf38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 18c | 1,925$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.65 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 37c | 1,336$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.98 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 33c | 1,204$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 26c | 765$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.25 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 70c | 677.21$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.68 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 71c | 384.2$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.51 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 314.51$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.54 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 72c | 129.15$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.22 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd79a…1e60backed No | 79c | 126.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed Yes | 16c | 126.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 25c | 111$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 26c | 110$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 17c | 87.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 22c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b6…1c34backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 27c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…70d7backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac74…d131backed Yes | 37c | 28.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 44.0% and 44.4% on September 26?this page
- Will Trump’s approval rating be <43.5% on September 26?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 43.5% and 43.9% on September 26?Yes won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 44.5% and 44.9% on September 26?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on September 26?No won
- Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥45.5% on September 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.