MLB · resolved market
Shohei Ohtani: Home Runs O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x032dbdb749f8d48b56156a1f144a7d326e9cd4f9004645679b13a0cacb71d37d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 27c | 7,354$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 73c | 2,500$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Under | 76c | 1,725$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.38 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 68c | 1,388$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.13 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6193…5b80backed Under | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 231 | 46.8%108 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…8204backed Under | 76c | 510.62$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.55 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36dd…bfccbacked Over | 24c | 290.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c73…cd83backed Under | 78c | 94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +10.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Under | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 74cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8652…93cebacked Over | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 22c | 50.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Over | 23c | 46.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 75c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 1,813 | 49.1%891 W · 922 L | -26.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Under | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b4…5027backed Under | 78c | 18.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Under | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3713…ab6fbacked Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 75cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shohei Ohtani: Home Runs O/U 0.5this page
- Roki Sasaki: Strikeouts O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.