F1 · resolved market
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03349ff8d8ff8883620c1b6110e0da5e2b14344ba8bfe938300ee33822608e31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7967…2128backed Yes | 42c | 263.53$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.42per pick | 38cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 55c | 248$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.24 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ee…a587backed Yes | 42c | 173.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.7 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +13.8wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 58c | 149.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Yes | 72c | 139.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Yes | 52c | 119$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 49c | 107.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c0…f389backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe96…4a6dbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78e4…4fb9backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -88.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 59c | 88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked No | 43c | 74.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 29c | 69.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…ee79backed Yes | 40c | 61.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +101%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked No | 30c | 54.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 22c | 47.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…772bbacked Yes | 50c | 41.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1729…11afbacked Yes | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…d917backed No | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 60c | 20.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -8.9wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 60c | 19.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?this page
- Will George Russell achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Japanese Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.