Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x033d7bd1c464a7aef8eb2ec4464c475803cf76d786f48ae2b29252be9a098e4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 39c | 1,606$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.12 | 1,265 | 24.5%310 W · 955 L | -56.9wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffa9…db6cbacked Up | 60c | 1,537$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.46 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Down | 27c | 1,502$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.39 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 57c | 1,424$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.85 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…d061backed Up | 66c | 1,407$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.93 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 47c | 1,345$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.73 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee7…d318backed Up | 53c | 1,025$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +299.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Up | 52c | 625$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.05 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 67c | 400$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…2e7cbacked Down | 45c | 320.39$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.83 | 81 | 65.4%53 W · 28 L | +10.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Down | 45c | 263.34$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.64 | 96 | 40.6%39 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Up | 57c | 239.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.19 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 46c | 230.65$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 303 | 43.2%131 W · 172 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Up | 57c | 140$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Up | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | +34.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…8e88backed Up | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 72cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Down | 54c | 85.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 304 | 38.8%118 W · 186 L | +20.0wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Down | 46c | 68.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 44c | 54.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed Down | 45c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8998…2707backed Up | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Down | 54c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Down | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.24per pick | 53cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x87cb…6232backed Up | 70c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f38…22d6backed Up | 57c | 22.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed Up | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.