Fifa International · resolved market
Italy vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0345767d3a072cbefec679aed22c3e70c60d54d1f7842837910bd2669073862e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,185
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 9c | 1,700$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.69 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +18.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 15c | 1,066$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.12 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.12 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 22c | 887.77$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.86 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd64b…873cbacked Under | 69c | 826.09$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Under | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -6.7wins | -0.24per pick | 59cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 13c | 519.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 18c | 358.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Over | 32c | 314.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 193 | 17.1%33 W · 160 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 70c | 220$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 673 | 54.7%368 W · 305 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 31c | 211.59$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 681 | 41.1%280 W · 401 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 68c | 208.7$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 7c | 190$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked Under | 70c | 185.71$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde42…e01bbacked Over | 31c | 163.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 76c | 148$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 199 | 46.7%93 W · 106 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1349…359bbacked Over | 20c | 148$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 72c | 141.45$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Over | 32c | 125.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 255 | 54.5%139 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +8.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 13c | 123.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1,711 | 35.2%603 W · 1,108 L | -68.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19df…4404backed Under | 71c | 108.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 29c | 108.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…c281backed Over | 31c | 100.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1c…a9a5backed Over | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 395 | 51.1%202 W · 193 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 214 | 44.9%96 W · 118 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 68c | 94.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…9218backed Under | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ea…8b9abacked Under | 67c | 75.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 164 | 65.2%107 W · 57 L | +15.1wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Over | 32c | 74.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 32c | 71.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 68c | 70.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc136…39b4backed Over | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 32c | 62.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1340…d21bbacked Over | 32c | 59.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Under | 77c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 467 | 43.3%202 W · 265 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…5335backed Over | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Under | 69c | 43.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe55a…ccfbbacked Over | 30c | 41.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 32c | 37.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd499…7d5bbacked Under | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…3db9backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…9af5backed Under | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…01fdbacked Under | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 242 | 57.9%140 W · 102 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Under | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…45c6backed Under | 70c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…02b9backed Under | 78c | 15.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Italy vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5this page
- Italy vs. Northern Ireland: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Italy vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 1.5Over won
- Italy vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5Under won
- Italy vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.