Mls · resolved market
Will LA Galaxy beat St. Louis SC?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03b707b35c9d04aab230e5543c7140277a4d4b430b7bb2d9a843247402950c76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 24c | 3,102$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 75c | 1,504$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.71 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 12c | 896.23$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 77c | 858.8$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.32 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 30c | 787.08$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.98 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked Yes | 29c | 571.79$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 71c | 471.79$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.82 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 20c | 442.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed No | 70c | 401.96$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.59 | 86 | 61.6%53 W · 33 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb260…a44ebacked No | 70c | 253.12$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 69c | 225.12$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.79 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 72c | 162.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 76c | 130.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 76c | 130.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61ab…790bbacked Yes | 29c | 126$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 71c | 125.14$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.29 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed No | 76c | 78.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb32…b21ebacked No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…e834backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +37%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 75c | 41.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.34per pick | 53cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed No | 75c | 19.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will LA Galaxy beat St. Louis SC?this page
- Will St. Louis City SC beat LA Galaxy?No won
- Will St. Louis SC vs. LA Galaxy end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.