Asian League · resolved market
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03c1c4a23a3589fb66ecf84140162e12663dfa99adcef918be65fa1d6a758846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe45d…230dbacked Under | 32c | 5,000$1,593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,592.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 52c | 4,755$2,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,266.66 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 15c | 2,593$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,203.71 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 2,458$1,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.26 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 1,838$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.31 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 79c | 386.65$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.26 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 69c | 350$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 120 | 74.2%89 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 57c | 224.15$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.41 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 12c | 214.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 77c | 165$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 206 | 38.8%80 W · 126 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 45c | 157.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.9 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 14c | 126.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 50c | 83.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 64c | 64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 64c | 63.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Under | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 82 | 65.9%54 W · 28 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…6163backed Over | 50c | 40.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 89 | 41.6%37 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 69c | 32.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 51c | 32.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 396 | 55.8%221 W · 175 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 30.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 64c | 24.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 48c | 23.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 564 | 45.4%256 W · 308 L | -25.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Over | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf39…7032backed Under | 57c | 18.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 1.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 5.5Under won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Sanfrecce Hiroshima O/U 0.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Urawa Red Diamonds O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.