Asian League · resolved market
Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfacfaee5d0e358ec261171091f495a7f809b361eb0e81d646a64483259a6448a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sanfrecce Hiroshimaof Sanfrecce Hiroshima, Urawa Red Diamonds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,155
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,155 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Urawa Red Diamonds | 75c | 7,019$5,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,263.89 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 24c | 2,729$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,079.01 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 61c | 2,405$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.91 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 36c | 1,950$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250.58 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 294 | 32%94 W · 200 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0844…f46abacked Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +28%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 25c | 752$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 25c | 752$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…8f28backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 80c | 312.5$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 25c | 233.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.17 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 25c | 202.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.88 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 25c | 149.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.75 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 75c | 140.37$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.28 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 25c | 114$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 48c | 105.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 25c | 99.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.98 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +15.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 25c | 98.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 122 | 42.6%52 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 43c | 92.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 24c | 81.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 76c | 70.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2316…9819backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 25c | 68.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 40c | 65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 72c | 54.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 80c | 48.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 54c | 41.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…af29backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 50c | 40.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 72c | 40.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Urawa Red Diamonds | 75c | 35.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…2fc6backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Urawa Red Diamonds | 80c | 24.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 53 | 69.8%37 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea88…261abacked Urawa Red Diamonds | 80c | 22.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 78c | 21.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 92 | 65.2%60 W · 32 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Urawa Red Diamonds | 73c | 18.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 211 | 52.1%110 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 1.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 4.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 5.5Under won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Sanfrecce Hiroshima O/U 0.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Urawa Red Diamonds O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.