Asian League · resolved market
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4b2f76a4dc7604e59ce4f7ef244584b331ccd357b50b5aa02a29621908b9d38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 15c | 4,694$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.3 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 13c | 3,361$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.21 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked Over | 41c | 877.91$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.44 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 62c | 518.04$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 363 | 52.9%192 W · 171 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…8654backed Under | 61c | 409.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.83 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 43c | 310.3$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.43 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +51%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…398abacked Over | 37c | 261.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 27c | 200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 260 | 52.7%137 W · 123 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8955…3a83backed Over | 48c | 185.59$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 26c | 118.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 396 | 55.8%221 W · 175 L | +31.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 73c | 113.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 57c | 101.23$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 57c | 81.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 263 | 48.7%128 W · 135 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 78c | 70.78$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 319 | 60.2%192 W · 127 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 57c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 58c | 29.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked Over | 39c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…7bd0backed Under | 57c | 23.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e1…6935backed Under | 76c | 15.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 5.5this page
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Spread: Urawa Red Diamonds (-1.5)Sanfrecce Hiroshima won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: 1st Half O/U 2.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 1.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 2.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 3.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 4.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Sanfrecce Hiroshima O/U 0.5Over won
- Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Urawa Red Diamonds O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.