Tennis · resolved market
Rolex Paris Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Jannik Sinner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03d4cb32bc2524e62e10ac0be091622e6b83595702399bfadf4737d562223ac8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Cerundolo, Sinner
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $183,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Cerundolo | 8c | 12,387$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Cerundolo | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Cerundolo | 5c | 9,168$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.87 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +182.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…ceb2backed Cerundolo | 6c | 9,098$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.61 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb6…da3ebacked Cerundolo | 6c | 7,234$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.51 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Cerundolo | 3c | 5,520$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.12 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…a780backed Cerundolo | 7c | 5,251$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.03 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Cerundolo | 6c | 5,079$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 191 | 31.4%60 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d76…9168backed Cerundolo | 9c | 3,423$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.96 | 375 | 40.8%153 W · 222 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Cerundolo | 6c | 3,013$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.95 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Cerundolo | 7c | 2,891$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b1…a75ebacked Cerundolo | 8c | 2,653$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.03 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…1722backed Cerundolo | 9c | 2,650$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.65 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Cerundolo | 8c | 2,536$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…8d38backed Cerundolo | 7c | 2,471$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 25cpaid | +168.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…d34cbacked Cerundolo | 5c | 1,890$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cerundolo | 8c | 1,600$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.47 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…a17bbacked Cerundolo | 4c | 1,598$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cerundolo | 11c | 1,539$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.57 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Cerundolo | 6c | 1,400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc710…17a6backed Cerundolo | 10c | 1,352$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3187…896dbacked Cerundolo | 5c | 1,350$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cerundolo | 5c | 1,257$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.36 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20e1…4504backed Cerundolo | 10c | 1,234$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcb…0d14backed Cerundolo | 10c | 1,231$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Cerundolo | 8c | 1,225$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 56.1%261 W · 204 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176a…5488backed Cerundolo | 10c | 1,199$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5994…f42cbacked Cerundolo | 10c | 1,093$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Cerundolo | 1c | 1,018$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Cerundolo | 2c | 1,014$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Cerundolo | 9c | 1,005$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa253…7630backed Cerundolo | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Cerundolo | 6c | 999.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Cerundolo | 6c | 999.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Cerundolo | 5c | 983.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd492…57debacked Cerundolo | 10c | 936$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9f…4cc8backed Cerundolo | 6c | 877.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.77 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Cerundolo | 2c | 819.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c4…83debacked Cerundolo | 10c | 789$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed Cerundolo | 23c | 740.22$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.19 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80d…dc0fbacked Cerundolo | 10c | 678$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…3b80backed Cerundolo | 5c | 660$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf24b…261cbacked Cerundolo | 8c | 644.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Cerundolo | 6c | 640$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25cf…3cdbbacked Cerundolo | 10c | 639$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ec…a7b9backed Cerundolo | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 108 | 22.2%24 W · 84 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…0fb5backed Cerundolo | 10c | 567$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…5428backed Cerundolo | 14c | 523.12$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Cerundolo | 6c | 509.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 66 | 28.8%19 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca2…f018backed Cerundolo | 4c | 500.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Cerundolo | 5c | 466.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.23per pick | 31cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd84a…a882backed Cerundolo | 10c | 456$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e18…6e94backed Cerundolo | 10c | 423$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…3f14backed Cerundolo | 5c | 420$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…2518backed Cerundolo | 8c | 368.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9e…ae2cbacked Cerundolo | 6c | 338.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Cerundolo | 15c | 335.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 115 | 33.9%39 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Cerundolo | 8c | 324.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Cerundolo | 13c | 310.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Cerundolo | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1544…6f27backed Cerundolo | 5c | 299.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cerundolo | 6c | 279$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…7ff4backed Cerundolo | 7c | 274$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9494…308abacked Cerundolo | 7c | 269$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2475…5f8cbacked Cerundolo | 8c | 256.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…ebaabacked Sinner | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Cerundolo | 7c | 175.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe98…9e5abacked Cerundolo | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4164…1053backed Cerundolo | 18c | 128.12$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…f259backed Cerundolo | 13c | 117.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed Cerundolo | 15c | 79.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ca77backed Cerundolo | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.